BGSU Poll

The BGSU Poll conducts regular statewide polling in Ohio to better understand citizen views on a variety of issues and political preferences. A team of scholars working in the Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network are responsible for developing and analyzing each poll. The BGSU Poll partners with the national polling firm YouGov to obtain representative samples for each survey based upon relevant demographic data.   

October 2025 Poll Results   

The Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network has released the October BGSU Poll, a web-based poll of 800registered Ohio voters conducted from October 2 to October 14.The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points. The sample’s weighting reflects a +10 margin for Trump in the 2024 presidential race.

The poll was conducted under the direction of Bowling Green State University professors Dr. Robert Alexander, Dr. Melissa Miller, Dr. David Jackson, and Dr. Joshua Boston in partnership with YouGov. 

Trump approval continues to slips among Ohio voters 

"Although Donald Trump has enjoyed great electoral success in Ohio, we find that his favorability has declined steadily in the first year of his second term. Many of his policies are not especially popular and his favorability has dropped 9 points from February to October, where he is now below water with a -10 favorability rating.”
- Robert Alexander, professor of political science, BGSU

Donald Trump’s approval rating has steadily fallen in each of the polls we have conducted of Ohio voters this year. In February, he held a +6 favorable rating (50-44); in April he slipped to a -1 favorable rating (47-48); and in this poll he stands at -10 (41-51). A majority of respondents believe the economy is worse than it was a year ago (56%); 60% oppose Trump’s tariff policies; 69% oppose changing the name of the Department of Defense to the Department of War; and 63% favor governors having the authority to determine whether the National Guard is deployed to their states by the federal government. Trump receives the most blame for the current government shutdown, with 46% of respondents saying they blame him “a great deal,” compared to 41% who say the same about congressional Republicans and 34% who say the same about congressional Democrats.

Ohioans could be in for competitive races for Governor and the U.S. Senate

“Democrats are likely to be encouraged by these numbers. They look to be competitive in both the governor’s race and the U.S. Senate race. We are likely to see a great deal of attention in the coming year to see if a state that has become reliably red still has a shade of purple left in it. With that said, the state remains a heavy lift for Democrats given recent election outcomes.”
- Robert Alexander, professor of political science, BGSU

Republicans have dominated Ohio electoral politics over the past decade, suggesting to many that Ohio is no longer a purple state, but solidly red. Although early, we find a close race for Ohio’s next governor with Republican Vivek Ramaswamy holding a 3-point lead (50-47) against former Director of the Ohio Department of Health Amy Acton and just a 2-point lead (49-47) against former U.S. Congressman Tim Ryan who has not declared a candidacy for governor. Acton leads Ryan 50-41 in a hypothetical matchup among Democratic primary voters.

We find former U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown in an essential dead heat (49-48) against current U.S. Senator Jon Husted in a prospective matchup for an Ohio Senate seat. Brown lost his seat to Bernie Moreno last fall by a narrow margin. 

Ohio Voters Find Democracy Worse and Economy Better

“Despite a sense of improved economic fortunes, Ohio voters are increasingly worried about U.S. democracy. The economy and democracy remain two clear undercurrents in Ohio voter opinion, and right now they appear to be flowing in different directions.”
– Melissa K. Miller, professor of political science, BGSU

The overall mood of Ohio voters has changed little since April. A majority (53%) think the U.S. is off on the wrong track today, versus half in April. Conversely, the percent who believe the country is headed in the right direction dropped from 42% in April to 38% in October. Feelings about the State of Ohio were unchanged.

A larger shift manifested in Ohio voters’ satisfaction with the way democracy is working. Only 24% are satisfied today, versus 30% in April. Dissatisfaction rose from 53% to 60%.

Concerns about America’s system of checks and balances have shifted similarly. Only 33% feel that federal checks and balances are effective, versus 42% in April. Conversely, the view that checks and balances are ineffective rose from 52% to 61% over the same period.

Views about the economy have improved somewhat since the spring. Asked about their personal economic situation, 25% indicated it had improved, up from 16% in April. Those believing it had worsened decreased from 39% to 36%. Asked about the national economy, 26% felt it had improved, up from 18% in April. Those believing the national economy had worsened decreased from 61% to 56%.

Asked about the most important issue facing the country today, 22% cited the economy in general and another 10% cited inflation. Threats to democracy were identified as most important by 22%, while all other issues registered in the single digits, including immigration (9%), health care (7%), political polarization (7%) and crime (6%).

Concerns Registered About Civil Liberties and ICE Activities

“The Trump Administration’s immigration and law enforcement policies have driven a stake between Democrats and Republicans. Virtually all Democrats are opposed while all Republicans are in favor. The differences are truly eye-popping.”
– Melissa K. Miller, professor of political science, BGSU

A majority of Ohio voters view civil liberties to be at risk. Sixty-four percent believe freedom of speech is being threatened, while 58% believe the same about freedom of the press, and 56% about freedom of assembly.

Democrats are far more likely than Republicans to view civil liberties as threatened. There is a 56-point difference in threat perception for freedom of assembly (86% Democrats; 30% Republicans). On freedom of the press the difference in threat perception is 55 points (87% Democrats; 32% Republicans). On freedom of speech, the difference in threat perception is 45 points (89% Democrats v. 44% of Republicans).

Majorities of Ohio voters are opposed to recent activities of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Fifty-one percent oppose recent ICE raids, while 52% oppose ICE’s use of unmarked cars and 54% oppose the donning of masks by ICE officers during operations.

Stark partisan differences lurk beneath these topline findings. In terms of ICE raids generally, 95% of Democrats oppose while 92% of Republicans favor. ICE’s use of unmarked cars is opposed by 95% of Democrats but favored by 89% of Republicans. In terms of ICE masks, 97% of Democrats oppose while 85% of Republicans favor. 

Rare points of partisan agreement when it comes to Jeffrey Epstein case

“While there are few things Democrats and Republicans tend to agree on, there is widespread agreement that powerful elites are likely being protected in the Epstein files and that the truth will likely never be known.”
– Robert Alexander, professor of political science, BGSU

Buckeye voters have strong feelings about the Jeffrey Epstein case. More than 8 out of 10 are at least somewhat familiar with the case. Seventy-five percent think it is unlikely that the full files will be released to the public. Eighty-five percent believe it is important that those who are responsible for crimes in the Epstein case be held accountable.

Almost 9 in 10 respondents believe there is probably (39%) or definitely (49%) a cover up to protect powerful elites. A majority of respondents (55%) rate both Congress’ handling and the Trump administration’s handling of the Epstein case as poor. 

Ohio voters see political violence as a major problem

“It is clear that most Ohioans are concerned about the threat of political violence in the wake of the Charlie Kirk assassination. This coincides with widespread concerns about political polarization and threats to civil liberties.” 
– Robert Alexander, professor of political science, BGSU

Most Ohio voters believe Charlie Kirk’s assassination is part of a larger problem of political violence in the country. More than 9 in 10 believe political violence is at least somewhat of a problem and 62% believe it is a very big problem. When asked who is most responsible, 29% blame the rhetoric of political leaders, 24% blame social media, and 23% blame political violence on individual mental health issues. Eighty-six percent believe political violence is never justifiable. In a related question, 58% believe it is never acceptable to publicly express satisfaction when someone is the victim of political violence. Eighty-four percent agree that Kirk’s assassination is not an isolated event, but part of a larger problem with political violence in the country.