Higher truck driver pay is linked to safer roads, but economic forces matter

When truckers are paid more, roads get safer, but only under the right economic conditions.

New research finds that labor market conditions shape the link between driver pay and crash risk.

Large truck crashes impose significant costs on drivers, employers and the public. These costs include injuries, fatalities, traffic congestion and damage to infrastructure. Prior research has shown that higher driver pay is often linked to fewer crashes, yet much of the U.S. trucking industry continues to operate with relatively low wages and high turnover.

New research published in Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society finds that the relationship between pay and safety is not consistent across economic conditions. Using carrier-level safety records and regional earnings data from more than 40,000 carriers, the researchers found that the link between higher pay and lower crash risk weakens when labor markets are slack or when carriers face increased cost pressures.

The study was conducted by Walter Ryley, associate teaching professor of economics in the Schmidthorst College of Business, Kevin Conner of the University of Utah and Michael Belzer of Wayne State University. Their analysis draws on a large dataset that pairs carrier safety records with regional labor market data, offering a broad view of how economic conditions shape crash risk across the trucking industry.

The findings suggest that trucking safety is influenced not only by individual carrier decisions but also by broader economic forces. When drivers have fewer job options and carriers face greater financial pressure, the safety benefits associated with higher pay appear to decline.

The researchers note that recent international regulations affecting the trucking industry may offer useful lessons for U.S. policymakers. Industry leaders and policymakers may benefit from considering how labor market conditions interact with pay policies to influence transportation safety outcomes.

Intrastate Truck Driver Pay and Safety: A Longitudinal Analysis is available via Wiley Online Library.