Residential Instability & Crime in Toledo: A 10-Year Time Series Analysis

Presented at the Academy of Criminal Justice Sciences Annual Meeting, Denver, CO, March 2025

by Julia C. Bell, MSCJ, Melissa W. Burek, Ph.D., Eric M. Cooke, Ph.D., Jaryt Salvo, MSA, M.Ed., & Stephanie DeCroix, MSCJ

Guided by social disorganization theory, this study examined the relationship between residential instability and crime across Toledo, Ohio census tracts from 2010 to 2019. Using geocoded police incident data and housing data from the U.S. Census, American Community Survey, and HUD, the analysis focused on three indicators of residential instability: residential vacancies, rental occupancy, and geographic mobility.

Findings indicated that residential vacancies were the most consistent predictor of crime. Between census tracts, vacancy rates were significantly associated with higher levels of crime in nearly every year examined, while within tracts, increases in vacancy were associated with additional crime incidents, particularly Part 1 personal crimes and substance offenses. Rental occupancy and geographic mobility demonstrated more limited and mixed effects, with some associations with property and personal crime and occasional reductions in substance offenses. Residential instability measures showed minimal influence on public order offenses.

Overall, the results support social disorganization theory by demonstrating how structural housing conditions—especially vacancy—contribute to neighborhood-level crime patterns. These findings highlight the potential value of housing stabilization and vacancy reduction efforts as components of comprehensive crime prevention strategies.

Forecasting Crime Trends in Toledo, OH: A Prophet-Based Modeling Approach to Neighborhood-Level Analysis of Crime Trends

Presented at the Academy of Criminal justice Sciences Annual Meeting, Denver, CO, March 2025

by Jaryt Salvo, MSA, M.Ed., Julia C. Bell, MSCJ, Melissa W. Burek, Ph.D., Eric M. Cooke, Ph.D., & Emily Massie, MSCS

This study examined neighborhood-level crime patterns in Toledo, Ohio, with the goal of improving short- and long-term crime forecasting. Using police incident data across multiple offense categories—including personal, property, public order, and substance-related crimes—the analysis focused on identifying temporal trends and seasonal variation at the census tract level. A time-series forecasting approach was used to model crime patterns over time while accounting for recurring seasonal effects.

Results revealed distinct seasonal patterns across most offense types, as well as differences in long-term trends by crime category. Decomposition of the time series indicated that many neighborhoods exhibited relatively stable underlying trends, with predictable fluctuations throughout the year. The forecasting models demonstrated strong performance in capturing both seasonal and trend components, supporting their utility for neighborhood-level analysis.

Overall, the findings highlight the value of time-series forecasting for understanding and anticipating local crime trends. By incorporating seasonality and temporal structure, this approach offers a useful framework for supporting crime analysis and planning, while underscoring the importance of continued validation and refinement of forecasting methods at finer geographic scales.

When One Dataset Isn’t Enough: Evaluating Ohio’s Permitless Carry Law

Presented at the Academy of Criminal Justice Sciences Annual Meeting, Chicago, IL March 2024.

by Melissa W. Burek, Ph.D., Julia C. Bell, MSCJ, Eric M. Cooke, Ph.D., Kayla Hauser, MSCJ & Karlee Augustus, MSCJ

In June 2022, Ohio enacted a permitless carry law allowing individuals to carry a concealed firearm without a license. This exploratory study examined trends in firearm-related crime before and after the law’s enactment across Ohio’s eight largest cities using a triangulation research approach. By integrating multiple data sources—including police incident reports, law enforcement injury and fatality records, and validated acoustic gunshot detection data—the study assessed whether patterns shifted following implementation of the law.

Findings indicated clear seasonal patterns in firearm-related crime both before and after enactment, with increases during the spring and summer months. While several cities experienced short-term increases immediately following the law’s implementation, most returned to trends similar to the pre-law period within weeks. Trend analyses revealed significant decreases in firearm-related incidents in Akron, Columbus, and Toledo, as well as across all eight cities combined, though modest post-law increases were observed in Dayton and Cincinnati. No appreciable change was found in officer injuries or fatalities involving firearms. In cities using gunshot detection technology, validated incidents declined by more than 20 percent following enactment.

Overall, the findings underscored the value of using multiple data sources to evaluate firearm policy impacts and highlighted the importance of continued, long-term monitoring across jurisdictions.

Permitless Carry and Crime Trends: A Tale of Two Rivals—Ohio vs. Michigan

Presented at the Academy of Criminal Justice Sciences Annual Meeting, Denver, CO, March 2025

by Stephanie DeCroix, MSCJ, Julia Bell, MSCJ, Melissa W. Burek, Ph.D., & Eric M. Cooke, Ph.D.

This study examined firearm-related crime trends in Ohio and Michigan to assess whether Ohio’s 2022 permitless carry law was associated with changes in crime patterns relative to a neighboring non-permitless-carry state. Using data from June 2021 through June 2023, firearm-related incidents in Ohio’s eight largest cities were compared to similar cities in Michigan. Analyses drew on multiple official crime reporting systems and applied trend and mean-comparison tests to evaluate pre- and post-law patterns.

Results showed that Ohio and Michigan experienced largely similar trends in firearm-related crime, including seasonal increases during spring and summer months both before and after Ohio’s law took effect. In both states, seasonal highs declined over time. Trend analyses identified significant decreases in several Ohio cities—Akron, Columbus, and Toledo—as well as across all Ohio cities combined. Comparable decreases were also observed in multiple Michigan cities and statewide. While some cities in both states exhibited localized increases, overall patterns did not suggest a clear divergence attributable to the policy change alone.

Taken together, the findings suggested that firearm-related crime trends in Ohio following enactment of permitless carry largely mirrored those observed in Michigan, underscoring the importance of comparative, multi-state analyses when evaluating the impacts of firearm legislation.

Trends in Firearm-Related Crime Pre- and Post-Permitless Carry Laws: A Comparative Study of Ohio and Michigan

Presented at the Midwestern Criminal Justice Association Annual Meeting, Chicago, IL, September 2025.

by Stephanie DeCroix, MSCJ, Melissa W. Burek, Ph.D., Eric M. Cooke, Ph.D., Julia C. Bell, MSCJ, & Aiden Kelly

In June 2022, Ohio enacted a permitless concealed carry law allowing individuals to carry a concealed firearm without a permit. This study examined whether firearm-related crime changed following the law’s enactment by comparing trends in Ohio with those in neighboring Michigan, a state that continues to require permits. Firearm-related crime data from eight cities in each state were analyzed from June 2020 through June 2024.

Firearm-related crime in Ohio and Michigan followed similar seasonal patterns, with higher rates during warmer months, though trends began to differ between the states in mid-2023. Most of the selected cities in Ohio exhibited significant decreases (Cleveland, Cincinnati, Toledo, Parma, and Canton), as did several in Michigan (Detroit, Lansing, Dearborn, and Kalamazoo). Notably, Sterling Heights, Michigan, showed a significant increase over the study period. Differences between the periods before and after the law were observed in many cities, but these changes were not consistent across locations.

Overall, the findings do not show a clear or immediate connection between firearm-related crime and Ohio’s permitless carry law. Instead, the results suggest that firearm-related crime trends were shaped by broader factors affecting both states, highlighting the importance of ongoing comparative research.